EsportsJohn

This week has been absolutely filled with exciting games and fresh upsets between some of the mid tier teams. If you haven’t been keeping up with the competition, I highly recommend going back and watching the second round of #BattleForLA on Wednesday and the Philadelphia games against Seoul and New York.

The biggest trend we’re seeing in Stage 2 has definitely been Tracer playing a central role in team strategies. Teams with good Tracer players are starting to pull far ahead of the rest of the pack while teams with mediocre Tracers are slowly falling behind. For instance, The Los Angeles Valiant absolutely dominated Houston on Thursday with Soon’s pristine Tracer play, and Philadelphia’s Carpe went blow for blow with Seoul’s Munchkin and New York’s Saebyeolbe. San Francisco’s Danteh also played an insane Tracer against Dallas, scoring an insane 27 kill streak and 50% of all the Shock’s final blows. Even Florida, with the plethora of problems they have with their supports, had a really good set against Houston due to the prowess of Logix.

It’s becoming clear that every team needs a top quality Tracer player. Every kill matters more without the Mercy resurrects coming through, and no one picks off heroes better than Tracer. Houston and Dallas in particular have been struggling. They’ve tried sticking to their guns (pun intended) and continuing to run deathball-style compositions to make up for their struggling Tracer players, but it’s just not working. We’ll have to see how the rest of the stage pans out, but for now, you can bet that whichever team has the better Tracer wins.

The series today are:

• London Spitfire vs Los Angeles Gladiators
• New York Excelsior vs San Francisco Shock
• Florida Mayhem vs Dallas Fuel

How Good Are the Gladiators? – London vs Los Angeles Gladiators

The Gladiators have been a fairly strong if not consistent team in the Overwatch League, but they’ve never really had the breakout success of Philadelphia, Houston, or even Boston, which makes it quite difficult to pin them down. Lifetime, they have a record of 1-11 against Korean teams, and they’ve yet to face off against London, which is arguably the strongest one. When you take into account their mixed success against even the non-Korean teams, it’s almost impossible to figure out if they’re “good” based on numbers alone.

Earlier this week, I wrote that the Gladiators managed to find some success of the back of their secret weapon, Fissure. During the rise of Fissure, it seems Hydration, Asher, and Bischu have also stepped up their game within the last week, and that may be the tipping point for them. But is Asher good enough to take on Birdring and Profit? I’m not so sure. As much as I would like to cheer on the Gladiators (#SHIELDSUP), it’d be foolish to bet against London at this point in time: 4-0 London.

First Up – New York vs San Francisco

San Francisco is another team that’s difficult to rate. On good days, the DPS duo of Danteh and Babybay can look indomitable. On others…not so much. The Shock have an insanely wide hero pool and tons of compositional flexibility, but in their case, it might be more important to dig deep than wide. The results are stacked against them. Along with Florida and Dallas (and Shanghai, of course), San Francisco has one of the worst records in the league, and even though they’ve shown small glimmers of talent, it hasn’t turned to gold.

Interestingly enough, San Francisco has only played against one Korean team (twice) due to the format of the league, and since the Koreans are basically the overlords of Overwatch, the Shock has been largely untested. Both their series against Seoul were fairly one-sided but with a few outstanding rounds. London and New York are different beasts. New York has proven time and time again that they are the most flexible team in the league. It’s almost as if they’re always two steps ahead of their opponents in the game of compositional chess and strategic thinking. If San Francisco has scored a few upsets in the past due to some clever hero swaps and brilliant tactical play, they’re in for a surprise against New York. As well as New York has been playing, it would be insane to expect anything less than a 4-0 from them.

A Beautiful Mess – Florida vs Dallas

Oh god, where to begin with this matchup? Florida and Dallas are both the biggest trainwrecks of the league (except of course, as always, the Shanghai Dragons), so this matchup is essentially the junction of two massive disappointments…? It feels wrong to speak so badly of both teams, but there’s no doubt that they haven’t lived up to expectations.

Dallas is formerly the single most successful foreign Overwatch team prior to the Overwatch League. Team EnVyUs dominated the west for close to a year then went to Korea, competed in APEX, and brought half the league to its knees. It was impossible to topple Lunatic-Hai (now Seoul Dynasty) from their perch, but they gave everyone else a good run for their money. So it’s no wonder that all eyes were on Dallas in the Overwatch League, and I think that many people were expecting far different results from the fan-favorite team. However, from the very beginning, they have been failed to live up to the hype surrounding them. Their play has been inconsistent at best, and their roster has experienced multiple penalties for poor behavior. xQc alone has spent more than half of the Inaugural Season on the bench due to disciplinary actions of the league and Dallas.

Florida, on the other hand, is the remnant of Misfits. They don’t necessarily have the same legacy as EnVy or Rogue, but they were still very much contenders for second best non-Korean team before the Overwatch League began. Logix and TviQ were legendary in their time, but as assassins on the Mayhem, they have failed to match up with the insane level of DPS play in the rest of the league. Florida also has severe issues with their tank/support coordination which prevent them from capitalizing on even the best plays from their DPS duo. All in all, they have a ton of potential, but their performance in the Overwatch League has been nothing greater than underwhelming.

That’s what makes this match interesting though. So many things can go wrong. The result of random tilting, poor decision making, or mechanical errors could change the course of a game drastically at every turn. It’s completely unpredictable. For that reason, I’m not even going to try and predict what will happen…I’m just going to sit back and enjoy watching this beautiful mess.

I missed yesterday due to IRL stuff, but at least I got to watch a great series between Philadelphia and Seoul in the VoDs. Anyhow, today’s storylines are a bit drab. No one really has anything to lose or gain with these series, but as with everything in the Overwatch League, every map matters. It’s a chance for all of the teams struggled below the playoffs line to pick up a few maps and increase their odds of making it to the Grand Finals.

If it’s any consolation, at least there’s no Shanghai games today.

The series today are:

• London Spitfire vs Boston Uprising
• New York Excelsior vs Philadelphia Fusion
• Florida Mayhem vs Houston Outlaws

Boston Tea Party – London vs Boston

Boston started Stage 2 in a straight up freefall with 12 consecutive map losses, a shocking result after the impressive play they showed at the end of Stage 1. Nonetheless, as they’ve adjusted to the new metagame, it’s been less of a struggle. They recovered fairly well with two 4-0s against Florida and Shanghai, and they’re back in the standings with an overall positive map score.

Nonetheless, this is a difficult match for them. London won the Stage 1 playoffs and carried that momentum into Stage 2 with a big win over New York and absolute domination over Philly; simply put, they are the team to beat in this league. It’s unlikely that Boston will take the series, but Striker’s Tracer might be enough to disable London’s front line long enough for the Uprising to take a map…but we’re talking about the royal navy against some rebels here. 4-0 London.

The Struggle is Real – New York vs Philadelphia

This will probably be the highlight match of the evening. Philadelphia has been slowly but surely improving, and other than their humiliating loss to London last week, they’re putting up a real fight to break into the top 5. Their victory over the Outlaws in Week 2 established them as the best non-Korean team, and their series against Seoul was nothing short of breathtaking (though it ended in defeat). They’ve taken on two of the Korean final bosses, now it’s time for the third.

But New York is an immovable object. Sporting the three best Overwatch players in their respective roles—Saebyeolbe, Pine, and JJoNak—New York has a triple DPS threat that is terrifyingly difficult to deal with. With so much pressure being put on Pine by opposing teams these days, Saebyeolbe has stepped up to the plate with his Tracer play and knocked it out of the park. Even if you try to dive the supports, you still have to avoid getting booted in the face by JJoNak’s Zenyatta. It’s such a strong lineup, but New York has one fatal flaw: their aggression sometimes puts them way out of position. The team has actually stated in an interview that they let Pine play as aggressively as he wants and just try to back him up—the casual definition of a house of cards. If Pine falls, New York’s coordination can fall apart very quickly, and that’s something that Philadelphia can capitalize on.

Philadelphia still holds the record for being the only non-Korean team to take a series off New York, so it’s not out of the question that we could see another victory here. However, considering how badly Philly got booped by London, I find it difficult to expect a miracle series against New York again. New York should win this decisively, but I expect the Fusion to give them some trouble. 3-2 in favor of New York.

Uh, What Happened? – Florida vs Houston

Remember when Houston was far and away the most consistent non-Korean team? Well, I’m not certain that’s true anymore. They started off Stage 2 very comfortably with a revenge victory against London and a subsequent 4-0 against Boston, but things just haven’t quite lined up since. They fell to Philadelphia next (though, to be fair, it was a great series), and from there, everything just unraveled. New York boinked them almost as hard as London beat up Philadelphia, and then the Valiant swept up with a decisive 4-0.

It appears that their deathball style of playing has finally caught up to them. Agile assassins like Tracer and Genji can easily break up the deathball without the bandaid double Mercy ressurect. Jake’s Junkrat is a crutch, and without it, the Outlaws have had to pivot to more mobile hitscan heroes that they’re not as well-practiced on. Let’s face it, Houston doesn’t have a Tracer player on the same level as Carpe, Soon, or Danteh, and it’s that lack of a strong Tracer player that’s been hurting them. Although Clockwork (Houston’s fallback Tracer player) made a brief appearance in the match against the Valiant, the series continually had them going back to their old comfort picks of Junkrat, McCree, and Widow and using wonky triple tank compositions, all of which were not working. Simply put, Houston has hit a wall here. Their old strats are impotent, and they don’t have the flexibility to succeed in the new metagame.

Florida, on the other hand, has had some ups and downs throughout the league, but they’ve arguably had more ups than downs recently. They have a tremendously terrible record in Phase 2, but it’s partially because they were thrown to the lions in Weeks 1 and 2. However, for a team that is struggling, Florida did have a few good moments against New York and London which suggest that they may actually have what it takes to rise to a greater level. But they’ve got to get there first, and a lot of that starts with just improving their basic mechanics and shotcalling. I hate to say it, but even in such a battered and beaten state, I still think Houston will take the win 4-0.